Predicting Geopolitics
Probability forecasts and analysis for geopolitical events
About IntelGeoPol
Predictive Analysis
We merge our expert knowledge with AI to forecast probabilities of key geopolitical events across emerging markets.
Our Methodology
We use a combination of historical data, expert knowledge, and machine learning to forecast probabilities of key geopolitical events across emerging markets.
Track Record
We have a proven track record of predicting major political shifts, economic developments, and regional conflicts.
Key Research Areas
Latin America
Analyzing political trends, economic development, and social movements in the region.
- Regional integration and trade agreements
- Democratic consolidation and challenges
- Environmental policies and sustainable development
Latest Blog Posts
The United States Suspends Military Shipments to Ukraine: Implications and Future Prospects
July 3rd, 2025
What Led to the Suspension of Military Aid? The recent decision by the Pentagon to suspend shipments of aerial defense missiles and precision ammunition to Ukraine marks a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy. This move is primarily driven by concerns over the depletion of U.S. weapons reserves...
US Suspension of Military Shipments to Ukraine: A Shift in Strategic Support?
July 3rd, 2025
What Prompted the Suspension of Military Shipments? The United States Department of Defense has recently halted the shipment of aerial defense missiles and precision ammunition to Ukraine, citing concerns over the depletion of America's own weapons reserves. This decision reflects a strategic recal...
Trump Administration Considers Nuclear Development Program for Iran to Ease Tensions
June 27th, 2025
What is the Proposed Nuclear Program? The Trump administration is contemplating a significant shift in its approach towards Iran by proposing the development of a civil nuclear energy program. This initiative would involve providing Iran with access to up to thirty billion dollars, aimed at facilit...
Our Experts
Lukas Tassanyi
Director
Expertise in Latin America, South East Asia and Russia
Our Global Impact
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Successful predictions in 2023
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Active probability forecasts
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Countries monitored
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Prediction accuracy rate
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