Predicting Geopolitics

Probability forecasts and analysis for geopolitical events

About IntelGeoPol

Predictive Analysis

We merge our expert knowledge with AI to forecast probabilities of key geopolitical events across emerging markets.

Our Methodology

We use a combination of historical data, expert knowledge, and machine learning to forecast probabilities of key geopolitical events across emerging markets.

Track Record

We have a proven track record of predicting major political shifts, economic developments, and regional conflicts.

Key Research Areas

Latin America

Analyzing political trends, economic development, and social movements in the region.

  • Regional integration and trade agreements
  • Democratic consolidation and challenges
  • Environmental policies and sustainable development

Featured Publications

Will Trump Withdraw the U.S. from NATO in 2025?

Will Trump Withdraw the U.S. from NATO in 2025?

February 23rd, 2025

Will Trump Cut Aid to Jordan or Egypt?

Will Trump Cut Aid to Jordan or Egypt?

February 23rd, 2025

Will Egypt and Israel Sever Ties Before July?

Will Egypt and Israel Sever Ties Before July?

February 24th, 2025

Latest Blog Posts

Asian Economic Powerhouses Unite on Trade Strategy Amid Global Tensions

Asian Economic Powerhouses Unite on Trade Strategy Amid Global Tensions

April 1st, 2025

What Does This Trilateral Trade Alliance Mean for Global Commerce? In a landmark development that could reshape global trade patterns, China, Japan, and South Korea have announced a strategic alignment that analysts are calling one of the most significant commercial movements of the century. The th...

China Launches Large-Scale Military Exercises Near Taiwan

China Launches Large-Scale Military Exercises Near Taiwan

April 1st, 2025

What Are the Objectives of China's Military Exercises? The Command of the Theater of Oriental Operations of the Popular Liberation Army (EPL) of China commenced large-scale military exercises in the surroundings of the island of Taiwan on Tuesday. According to Colonel Shi Yi, spokesman for the comm...

China Blocks BlackRock's Acquisition of Strategic Panama Port

China Blocks BlackRock's Acquisition of Strategic Panama Port

April 1st, 2025

What's at Stake in the Panama Canal Port Control? In a significant development that underscores the intensifying global competition for strategic infrastructure, Chinese regulators have blocked investment giant BlackRock from acquiring the Panama Colon Container Terminal, a critical port facility n...

Our Experts

LT

Lukas Tassanyi

Director

Expertise in Latin America, South East Asia and Russia

UA

Umut Akarsu

Geopolitical Analyst

Research and Analysis

Our Global Impact

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Successful predictions in 2023

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Active probability forecasts

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Countries monitored

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Prediction accuracy rate

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