Predicting Geopolitics
Probability forecasts and analysis for geopolitical events
About IntelGeoPol
Predictive Analysis
We merge our expert knowledge with AI to forecast probabilities of key geopolitical events across emerging markets.
Our Methodology
We use a combination of historical data, expert knowledge, and machine learning to forecast probabilities of key geopolitical events across emerging markets.
Track Record
We have a proven track record of predicting major political shifts, economic developments, and regional conflicts.
Key Research Areas
Latin America
Analyzing political trends, economic development, and social movements in the region.
- Regional integration and trade agreements
- Democratic consolidation and challenges
- Environmental policies and sustainable development
Latest Blog Posts
The United States' Role in the Israeli-Irani Conflict
June 14th, 2025
What is the Current Stance of the United States? The United States has historically maintained a complex and strategic relationship with both Israel and Iran. In recent developments, former President Donald Trump initially expressed a preference for diplomacy over military engagement, emphasizing n...
Iran and Israel: The Unfolding Conflict in the Middle East
June 13th, 2025
What Sparked the Recent Hostilities? The recent escalation between Iran and Israel marks a significant turning point in their long-standing antagonism. The immediate trigger was Israel's preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, a move designed to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear c...
Escalation in the Middle East: Israel Under Missile Barrage Amidst Rising Tensions with Iran
June 13th, 2025
How Did the Conflict Reach This Point? The current wave of hostilities between Israel and Iran has its roots in longstanding geopolitical tensions and mutual distrust. Iran's nuclear ambitions have been a point of contention for Israel, which views a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat. In ...
Our Experts
Lukas Tassanyi
Director
Expertise in Latin America, South East Asia and Russia
Umut Akarsu
Geopolitical Analyst
Research and Analysis
Our Global Impact
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Successful predictions in 2023
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Active probability forecasts
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Countries monitored
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Prediction accuracy rate
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