Will Egypt and Israel Sever Ties Before July?
Comprehensive Assessment of Potential Diplomatic Shifts
by Umut Akarsu
1. Context & Background
Egypt and Israel have maintained a formal peace since the signing of the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty, following decades of conflict that included multiple wars. While the relationship has remained intact for over 40 years, it has often been characterized as a "cold peace," with widespread Egyptian public opposition to normalization with Israel. Nonetheless, both countries have shared strategic and economic interests, particularly in counterterrorism efforts in the Sinai Peninsula and trade in natural gas, which has served them both on beneficial terms.
However, the ongoing war in Gaza has intensified tensions between Egypt and Israel, really testing the resilience of their diplomatic ties. Egyptian public sentiment has grown increasingly hostile towards Israel, leading to protests, boycotts, and parliamentary calls for a reassessment of the peace treaty. At the same time, Egypt remains a critical intermediary in negotiations between Israel and Hamas, making an outright severance of ties a high-stakes geopolitical move. The upcoming months will play a vital role in the future of the Middle East and the world.
2. Key Indicators of a Possible Breakdown
Gaza War Fallout
Egypt has been openly critical of Israeli military operations in Gaza, particularly as civilian casualties rise. The Egyptian government has taken diplomatic measures such as halting aid coordination with Israel and openly supporting legal cases against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). If Israeli military action escalates, Egypt may be pressured to take a more confrontational stance, including diplomatic isolation or cutting economic ties, which would cause a significant fallout.
Rafah Border Crossing Tensions
The Rafah crossing, controlled by Egypt, is a key humanitarian lifeline for Gazans. If Israel presses Egypt to accept Palestinian refugees or if Israeli forces expand operations near Rafah, Cairo could react with diplomatic retaliation. Egypt views any displacement of Palestinians into its territory as a major red line, and any Israeli military action at the crossing could result in a sharp deterioration of relations.
Shifts in U.S. Policy
A reduction in U.S. support for Israel or increased pressure from the Arab League could embolden Egypt to reconsider its relationship with Israel. If U.S. military aid to Egypt is threatened, Cairo may feel compelled to reassess its stance towards Israel.
Economic & Public Pressure
Egyptian public opinion overwhelmingly supports the Palestinian cause, and growing domestic discontent may force the government to take more decisive action. Widespread protests and boycotts have already targeted Israeli and U.S. companies, with some Egyptian lawmakers advocating for a full treaty reassessment. The Egyptian parliament has witnessed direct attacks on the peace treaty, with some legislators tearing up copies in protest. This internal pressure could force Egypt's leadership to take stronger anti-Israel measures.
Military Buildup in Sinai
Recent reports suggest Egypt has been gradually increasing its military presence in Sinai, potentially violating the security annex of the Camp David Accords. While Israel has historically approved these deployments retroactively, increasing military friction could contribute to diplomatic strain. Some Israeli officials have publicly voiced concerns about Egypt's military buildup, raising speculation that Israel may seek to reassert control over security arrangements, further worsening bilateral ties.
3. Factors Suggesting Maintaining Relations
Strategic Cooperation
Despite tensions, Egypt and Israel maintain a strong security partnership, particularly in combating ISIS-affiliated militants in Sinai. Severing ties would complicate these efforts and increase regional instability. Security coordination between the two nations has historically allowed Egypt to combat terrorism within its borders while benefiting from Israeli intelligence-sharing and military support.
U.S. Mediation & Influence
The U.S. plays a crucial role in maintaining Egypt-Israel relations and provides substantial economic aid to Egypt. A full breakdown would jeopardize this support, making it an unlikely move for Cairo. Egypt receives over $1 billion in U.S. military aid annually, a factor that heavily incentivizes Cairo to maintain stability in its foreign relations, particularly with Israel.
Economic & Energy Interdependence
Egypt relies on Israeli natural gas imports, and Israel benefits from Egypt's liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure. Cutting ties would disrupt these energy flows, harming both economies. Israel exports gas to Egypt for liquefaction and re-export to Europe, providing a vital source of revenue for both nations. A disruption in energy ties would negatively impact Egypt's economic stability and Israel's gas export capabilities.
Historical Resilience
Despite previous crises—including the Second Intifada and the 2011 Egyptian Revolution—Egypt and Israel have maintained diplomatic ties. This historical precedent suggests that even severe tensions are unlikely to lead to a complete severance. Even during periods of extreme political upheaval in Egypt, such as the Muslim Brotherhood's rule in 2012-2013, diplomatic ties remained intact, indicating the entrenched nature of the relationship.
4. Probability Assessment
Complete Severance of Diplomatic Ties
Downgrading Relations
Including recalling ambassadors and limiting cooperation
Risk Factors
- Israeli military operation in Rafah
- Incidents involving Egyptian forces
- Major escalation in Gaza
- Unexpected regional breakouts
A partial downgrade is more likely than a full diplomatic break. However, the above risk factors could significantly increase the likelihood of a complete rupture in relations.
5. Conclusion & Prediction
While Egypt-Israel relations are facing unprecedented strain, a complete severing of ties before July remains unlikely due to strategic, economic, and diplomatic constraints. However, relations will likely experience a cooling period, with Egypt potentially recalling its ambassador, limiting trade, and reducing security cooperation in response to continued Israeli military actions in Gaza.
Short-Term (0-6 months):Possible recall of the Egyptian ambassador, reduction in joint security efforts, particularly in Sinai, and increased diplomatic pressure on Israel via international forums.
Potential disruptions in trade agreements, especially concerning natural gas and LNG. Egypt may demand renegotiations on aspects of the peace treaty and possible Arab League coordination on economic and political measures against Israel.
A full severance of ties remains possible but would likely require a significant trigger event, such as an Israeli military attack on Egyptian forces or a total diplomatic failure. Egypt may continue leveraging its position as a mediator while maintaining a publicly hostile stance towards Israel.